Ohio Crop Weather from Jim Noel- NOAA Wilmington

Good day,

Good news too. Drier weather is here.

The last week saw more rain as we discussed last week. We talked last week about the chances of 2 inches around 40% for the next two weeks in the north and 80%+ in the south. Well, that occurred in the south and with not much more rain this week, that outlook should work out just fine.

We saw 0.50 to 1.00 in the north, 1.00 to 1.50 in the central and 1.5-3.0 inches south of I-70. You can use this link to look at rainfall totals. You can select length of interest and zoom in. Play around with this site. It is updated daily.

What is interesting, with little rain this week, by this weekend, Columbus will be below average rainfall for May, Dayton average and Cleveland and Cincinnati above average showing the range of rainfall this month and how wet our subsoil is from winter and early spring rains.
http://water.weather.gov/

There will be a weak system with some showers mainly in the south late today into early Tuesday. Otherwise, mainly dry weather is on tap this week. This week can be summed up with a cool and dry week. Next week looks to be warmer with a few rain chances, but there is uncertainty in timing and amounts. Some indications are we may not see that much either, but the milder weather is a given.

The bottom line, with the high sun angle, low relative humidity and cool temperatures slowly moderating, conditions will be slowly improving and when you get a chance to get in the fields, go go go.

The North American Ensemble Forecasting System calls for a 60-80% chance of 1 inch of rain through June 3rd with most of that falling after May 30th wiht a 20-50% chance of 2 inches through June 3rd with most falling after May 30th. The lowest chances are in the north and highest in the south.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/produits_e.html

The future seems to have become clouded. I think it will be important to see how the next few weeks evolves. If you base your outlook on the last few weeks, you would go with persistence. However, if you base it off La Nina and current model trends, you would go with earlier thoughts of a drier June and then near normal July/August rainfall. We shall see.

Here is a link to the latest CPC outlooks.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/index.php

Summary:

This week: Cool and drier

Next week: Warmer with only a few rains.

Summer Outlook:
Average temperatures and rainfall from June through August with a risk of going below average on rainfall.

Champaign Crop Report

We still have a way to go with planting in central Ohio. While Champaign County is approximately 90% planted on corn we may have only 40% of the soybeans in the ground. And with the cool temperatures, both corn and soybean are emerging and growing slowly.

From the OSU Agronomy Guide "on average" -
Corn yields decline approximately 1 to 1.5 bu/A per day if planting is delayed after the first week of May.
Soybean yields decline at about ½ bu/A per day after May 10th, although this varies with row with – 30 inch row soybeans may decline at 1 bu/A per day or more if planting is delayed and 7-inch rows are likely to have less yield decline.

The growing degree-day numbers for the current season from South Charleston (WRC):
Since May 1 – 123 GDD
Since April 15 – 242 GDD
It takes approximately 125-150 GDDs for corn to germinate and emerge. That's why corn (and soybeans) are growing slowly.

Wheat is just about to head out. Forages in many places have recovered somewhat from last years early freeze and then dry weather – we should cut hay this next week if the weather would cooperate. Unfortunately, the weatherman says we have another week of this to live through.

Shelby Crop report - wet!

Soils are saturated with cool wet weather forecast for the next two weeks.

Planting progress is at a standstill with an estimated 3/4 of the corn now planted. Corn can be rowed in many areas of the county, several later planted stands are uneven. Some pockets of the county have remained fairly wet with little planting progress overall.

About 25% of the soybeans are in county wide with many early planted fields cracking and a little beyond. Hesitance to push soybean seeding with adverse weather forecast and continued concern with seed quality and availability of seed for replant may have been well founded. Only time will tell.

Wheat is primarily in boot stage with little disease presence on resistant varieties.

Fields without burndown or residual herbicides are easy to spot. Many producers are concerned about the control to be expected from residual products already applied.

Auglaize County Report from John Smith

Weather: Rains have stopped the planting. With a full subsoil, even a small rain sets on the surface of the field. Hopefully after the 14th, it will be good for a few days.

Corn: 70-75% of the corn is planted in the county. Much of it has emerged. The plants are very light green. They need heat and sunshine.

Soybeans: 15-20% of the soybeans are planted. I have not observed any emerged.

Wheat: Wheat looks very good overall for the most part. Most is in the 9-10 Feekes growth stage. Most of the Flag Leaves are showing. If you plan to apply fungicide, now is the time as soon as you can get into the fields.

Forages: Alfalfa has grown very well. I have not seen many alfalfa weevil this year. Most fields are ready for 1st cutting as soon as there is a good weather window.

Soil Moisture: 100% excess.

Other Comments: I know most farmers do not have all the corn and soybeans planted, but for the dairy people an excellent quality 1st cutting hay will many times make you more $ than corn and soybeans. Plus if you get the 1st cutting off early, you have established the cutting schedule for the summer and have excellent quality feed for the year.

NOAA Wilmington, Crop Weather

Here is the weekly update...

Well, most of you probably do not want to hear from us right now. Well, La Nina is rearing its ugly head. Historical data points to lower crop yields in years with La Nina events, especially for corn. Wheat and soybeans can go either way. We hope to present this research at the annual National Weather Association meeting this October in Louisville. Most of the time it is a wet and cool early spring followed by a dry early summer that causes this. However, the exceptional wet winter and early spring means subsoil moisture levels are full. Hence, even some rain is filling things up to where it is causing issues.

It appears after a 3 week dry spell in April, May has opened with cool and moist conditions. It looks like this will linger for 2 more weeks. Not great news. This is against historical data which supported a near normal temperature May and below average rainfall. In fact, it is going to go down as a cool May with near normal rainfall and pockets of above normal rainfall. The real problem is the frequency of systems. They are coming every 2-3 days. The pattern is one not of real heavy and flooding rains, but frequent rainfalls. Expect another system Wednesday statewide mainly under 0.50 inches, another one in southern Ohio later Thursday or early Friday and another over the weekend and another next week.

In summary...
Below normal temperatures and near normal rainfall with frequent light to moderate rains can be expected the next 2 weeks. It appears a warmer and drier pattern will close out May into early June.

-Jim Noel
NOAA/NWs/OHRFC

Logan County Crop Report as of Friday

Rainfall: Received 1.1 inches on Wednesday and Thursday.
Soil is saturated and water is standing in several fields throughout the county.

Temperature: Lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s

Corn: Approximately 55 – 65 % of crop is planted. The earlier planted corn is emerging

Soybeans: Approximately 20 – 30 % of crop is planted. Several producers have indicated they planned to include a residual herbicide in their weed control program this year. These plans probably have a two fold purpose; 1) manage weed resistance and 2) glyphosate price increase. It remains to be seen the number of acres that actually receive these treatments due to the interruptions in planting progress resulting from rain.

Wheat: Continues to make very good progress. Most wheat is in the Feeks 8 growth stage.

Forages: Cool moist conditions have contributed to good growing conditions for alfalfa and grass hay. There have been no reports of insects or diseases adversely affecting the crop. Many pastures have been over grazed during the winter and early spring and are somewhat slow in recovering.

Clark County, Ohio - Agronomic Crops Scouting Report

May 5th - May 9th, 2008

Clark County has another good week; planting between some showers though. The county had sporadic showers last evening (5/7), central Clark County received 1.2 inches of rain, where east Clark County received only 2 tenths. Today (5/8), we are experiencing moderate showers across most of the county. Crops that are already planted will definitely take advantage of the needed water.

Planting progress in Clark County:

Corn: 90%

Soybeans: 50%

Wheat: Continues to look in good condition. Some areas are showing poor growth, mostly where ponding occurred during late greenup. Wheat is currently in Feekes growth stage 8-9 (last leaf just visible to ligule of last leaf just visible) across the county.

I have heard some soybean producers receiving seed with a 85-90 % germination, but also as low as 75%. Seed companies are off setting this low germ seed by providing the producer additional seed for compensation. With high soybean commodity price, many will be planting double crop beans after the winter wheat is harvested in July.

Comments from Jim Noel, National Weather Service, NOAA.

There is growing data to suggest below normal temperatures the next few weeks. Looking at historic La Nina data, most of the time, April and May periods are cooler than average. There is also a tendency to be drier than average in May. However, it looks like more normal May rainfall is on tap. However, the frequency of systems looks to be increasing as I said earlier today for the next 1-2 weeks. Therefore, it does not look like great conditions as temperatures are likely to average at least 3-6 degrees below normal. The temperatures and clouds may be as big of a story as the rain as it will reduce evaporation rates so even if we only get normal May rainfall, the cool temps are going to play havoc, no freezes, but lower evaporation rates. Sure looks like trouble for crop yields possibly.

Champaign Crop & Weather

Corn planting is at 90 %+
Soybean planting is maybe 50%
Wheat continues to look very good for the most part with some (missed N) streaking in the crop.

Rain came through yesterday with about an inch so far.

We slipped in another few acres between the rain showers. Corn planting is done or virtually done, soybean planting has a very good start. We are still spraying burndowns on no till acres, even after the crop has been planted. I did see some rye cut for hay or haylage this week, not sure when they'll be able to get up. Some hay fields are likely to be cut when and if the weather would cooperate.

Shelby Crop Report

Planting progress continued rapidly with an estimated 3/4 of the corn now planted. Corn can be rowed in many areas of the county. Some pockets of the county remained fairly wet with little planting progress overall.

About 25% of the soybeans are in. Many farmers were hesitant to push soybean seeding with adverse weather forecast and continued concern with seed quality and availability of seed for replant. Complicating the seed supply issue is the potential of both corn acres switching to soybeans and the price incentive to double crop beans after wheat.

Most wheat has reached stage 9 in many fields, with stage 10 (in boot) just around the corner.

In lieu of soybean planting, farmers and dealers reported large numbers of fields intended for soybeans receiving pre-plant herbicide treatments containing both 2,4-D and residual products.

Auglaize Crop & Weather May 7

Weather: Weather has been very good this week. Many fields have been worked and/or planted. The weatherman is calling for rain 3 out of the next 4 days.

Corn: Corn is 50-60% planted. I have not seen any emerged at this time.

Soybeans: Soybeans are starting to be planted.

Wheat: Wheat looks very good overall. Some is still in Feekes Stage 6, but most in Stage 7. I expect to see Flag leaves showing next week.

Forages: Many of the alfalfa fields are sparse on alfalfa plants. I have found very little alfalfa weevil at this time, usually in second Instar Stage.

Soil Moisture: Very adequate to excess.

Other Comments: If the weather holds, there will be alfalfa fields that will be ready to cut by May 15. This would set the fields up for 30-32 day cutting and producing high quality feed.

Reported by John M. Smith, Extension Educator, Auglaize County